Data centers, electricity bills and PJM capacity

Data centers are pushing up what the regional grid pays for capacity, and Maryland and DC customers cover part of that through the supply charge. PJM’s market monitor put the effect at about $6.5 billion in the 2027/28 auction alone.¹ That’s a regionwide figure, not a line on your bill.²

Maryland’s Office of People’s Counsel (OPC) gives two main reasons capacity prices jumped 800 percent.² One was that two Baltimore-area power plants, Brandon Shores and Wagner, were left out of the auction, adding up to $5 billion to its results.² The other was growing data center demand.² The same page says the biggest drivers of higher bills for Maryland customers are rising distribution rates and extreme weather, with supply costs adding to them.²

How does a capacity auction end up on your bill?

PJM Interconnection runs the grid across 13 states and the District, including all of Maryland.³ Capacity is a promise to supply electricity, or to cut demand, when the grid is stretched. PJM buys those promises through an auction it calls the Reliability Pricing Model. A delivery year runs 12 months, from June 1 through May 31.^4,5

Each PJM member that sells electricity to customers has to line up enough capacity for their demand plus a reserve. It can own plants, sign contracts, pay customers to cut use (demand response), or buy in the auction.⁴ The cost passes into retail supply prices. OPC says it appears in the supply part of the bill.²

Capacity isn’t the same thing as energy. PJM’s energy market buys electricity for real-time and near-term use, while capacity pays for being available when needed.^4,6 A bill mixes four kinds of cost. Only capacity comes from this auction.

How have capacity prices moved since 2024/25?

PJM publishes a report after each auction. Five of them side by side show the price jumping from $28.92 to $269.92 per megawatt-day in one year, then holding between $325 and $334 since.^9,10,11,12 The market monitor’s data center estimate is added where it exists.

Prices are PJM’s RTO-wide clearing prices per megawatt-day of unforced capacity.^9,10,11,12 The data center column is the market monitor’s modeled estimate.¹

The jump from 2024/25 to 2025/26 was more than ninefold. That year the BGE zone cleared higher still, at $466.35.⁹ OPC says Brandon Shores and Wagner were left out of the auction even though they are still used for reliability, and that PJM later admitted the error but left the higher costs in place.² Since then a price cap and floor has held the price between $325 and $334.^12,10 PJM says it set up the cap and floor, which it calls a collar, in coordination with the governors of all 13 PJM states and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), and it describes the $325 cap as FERC-approved.¹³ The 2028/29 auction cleared at the $325 cap, 2.5 percent below the previous cap.^12,13

Two cautions on the table. First, “auction value” is cleared supply times price. PJM says it isn’t the total cost to customers, because load covered by self-supply or bilateral contracts isn’t exposed to the clearing price.¹² Second, the 2028/29 auction cleared 6,831 megawatts short of PJM’s reliability requirement.¹² PJM says a shortfall doesn’t mean it can’t serve load. It means slimmer reserves and more risk.¹²

Are data centers behind the increase?

In the wholesale capacity market, the market monitor says data center load growth is the primary reason prices rose, alongside flaws in the auction’s design. It estimates data center load added about $6.5 billion to the 2027/28 auction and $23.1 billion across the last three.^1,14 No report calculates what that adds to your own bill.

The monitor is the independent watchdog that reviews PJM’s auctions. In a January 5, 2026 analysis it reran the auctions with and without data center load in the peak-load forecast. The gap was about $9.3 billion for 2025/26, $7.3 billion for 2026/27 and $6.5 billion for 2027/28.¹ PJM’s own 2028/29 report attributes a 1,374.5 megawatt rise in forecast load largely to additional large loads, and its news release notes the continued addition of large data center loads to the forecast.^12,13 A forecast guides how much supply PJM buys. It isn’t a meter reading from every proposed facility. And the $6.5 billion is a regionwide modeled amount, not a Maryland charge.¹ Some customers’ load was hedged against the clearing price.¹²

OPC names three separate routes from a data center to a Maryland bill:¹⁵

• Capacity. Demand growth drives up auction prices.
• Transmission. New regional lines. PJM advanced almost $12 billion of them in 2024 and 2025.¹⁵ OPC says Maryland customers will pay about $1.3 billion, plus billions more in utility profits as the investment is recovered over future decades.¹⁵
• Energy. Harder to measure, because prices change hour by hour.

The transmission route has a household-level estimate attached. In a May 7, 2026 complaint to FERC, OPC argued that PJM’s cost rules give Marylanders responsibility for $2 billion of data center-driven transmission projects.³ OPC’s expert puts the added bill cost at about $1.6 billion over ten years.³ The residential share is $823 million, or about $345 per average customer over those ten years.³ That’s one side’s filing, not a ruling, and it concerns transmission rather than the capacity auction.

The District’s regulator names the same pressures: demand growth driven partly by data centers in neighboring states, plus retiring plants and slow-arriving new supply.⁷

How much power does a data center draw?

There isn’t one figure. Power use follows the equipment, the cooling and how hard the machines run. A grid connection request states the most a site may draw, which can include design margin. Annual consumption is what it actually used over time. Project announcements mix the two freely.¹⁶

For a national baseline, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) estimates U.S. data centers used 192 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024, 4.7 percent of all U.S. electricity.¹⁶ Its Reference Case projects 464 TWh in 2028 and 649 TWh in 2030, or 11.8 percent of forecast U.S. use, with a scenario range of 521 to 843 TWh for 2030.¹⁶ The report counts servers, storage, network gear and facility systems, excludes cryptocurrency mining, and labels everything after 2024 a projection.¹⁶

Before you trust a number, check what it measures: one building, a campus or the nation, and actual use or requested capacity.

Where does Maryland’s electricity come from?

Maryland doesn’t make all the power it uses, and the state’s mix of fuels and imports shows how much it leans on neighbors. In 2024 the state generated about 35.4 million megawatt-hours and took in a net 27.1 million from other states, roughly 43 percent of its total supply.^17,18

Million MWh. Segment width is proportional to the value.

• Nuclear14.7
• Natural gas13.9
• Coal2.5
• Hydroelectric1.8
• Net imports from other states27.1

View the data as a table

2024 source	Million MWh
Nuclear	14.7
Natural gas	13.9
Coal	2.5
Hydroelectric	1.8
Net imports from other states	27.1

That table shows where power was made in 2024. What reaches your account depends on your supply arrangement.

Baltimore Gas and Electric (BGE) and Pepco buy default supply from wholesale suppliers through competitive bidding that the Maryland Public Service Commission (PSC) regulates. Maryland calls it Standard Offer Service (SOS). Residential and small commercial bids happen twice a year, and the lowest bidders win.¹⁹ OPC adds that utilities hold overlapping two-year contracts covering about 25 percent of residential needs each, so the SOS rate moves slightly every few months.¹⁹ Pick a third-party supplier instead and you get that company’s terms.

Pepco’s District customers follow a different track. The District’s regulator says Pepco buys SOS power through annual competitive auctions it monitors, so a Maryland supply reset doesn’t apply to a District account.²⁰ Both sets of auctions are separate from PJM’s capacity auction. The winning suppliers recover capacity costs through the supply price.^2,19

What’s coming next for capacity prices?

Three scheduled items are worth knowing, and each can change. The next auction is set for December 2026, a federal order has put a new procurement on hold, and the market monitor’s review of the latest auction hasn’t appeared yet:

• December 2026: the 2029/30 auction. PJM’s schedule lists an auction window of December 9 to 15, 2026, with results posted December 22. PJM’s own release says only that the auction is scheduled for December.^21,13
• Reliability backstop procurement. FERC’s September 29, 2026 order accepted PJM’s proposal for a one-time procurement of new supply for filing and suspended it for five months, effective February 28, 2027, subject to refund.²² PJM says it will not proceed with the procurement on its original September 30 date and that actual timing is to be determined.²³
• Market monitor’s 2028/29 analysis. On October 25, 2026, the monitor’s reports page listed its 2027/28 analysis (Part A in January, Part B in July) and its 2026/27 analysis, but none for 2028/29. No data center estimate for the latest auction was available.²⁴

A result published in July 2026 for a delivery year starting June 2028 doesn’t change your rate this winter. How and when your utility or supplier passes a cost through follows its own published schedule.^2,19

What should you check on your own bill?

Look at what changed on the bill, not at the headline. OPC’s advice is short: your total still follows how much electricity you use, so using less lowers it.² Four checks show whether a supply-price change is behind a jump.

1. Compare service dates and kilowatt-hours against the bill you’re using as a baseline. Weather and household habits move the comparison.²
2. Find your supplier. On SOS, read the utility’s current supply schedule. On a third-party contract, read the renewal terms.¹⁹
3. Split supply from delivery. Find the line that moved and the date it took effect. A fixed customer charge stays on the bill whatever you use.⁸
4. If payment is the problem, start with OPC’s assistance pages, or the District regulator’s if you’re a DC customer.^2,7

Here’s a hypothetical. Your usage held flat, but the supply rate rose on a date that matches the start of a new supply contract. That points to a supply-price change. No bill splits out how much came from a data center or an auction.^8,19

The practical takeaway: an auction result shows which way wholesale costs are heading, and your next bill depends on your utility’s schedule and your use. For ways to cut the part you can control, see how to lower your electric bill in Maryland, or read the line-by-line walkthroughs for Pepco and BGE bills.

If you’re weighing residential solar, start with your roof and your electricity-use record, and treat battery storage as its own decision about stored energy and household loads. An auction headline is no forecast for your own bill. Our guide on whether solar is worth it in Maryland walks through the questions that are.

To talk through your home’s roof and electricity use, book a free consultation or call (301) 953-4140.

This guide is general information, not legal, tax, or financial advice.

Sources (24)

1. Independent Market Monitor for PJM (Monitoring Analytics), Analysis of the 2027/2028 RPM Base Residual Auction, Part A, January 5, 2026, Table 1 and conclusions (2027/28 auction revenues $16,411,578,225; data center effect $6,497,653,512 for all data center load and $23,100,955,341 across the 2025/26, 2026/27 and 2027/28 auctions); PDF re-read October 24, 2026. Modeled estimates, not billed amounts. https://www.monitoringanalytics.com/reports/Reports/2026/IMM_Analysis_of_the_20272028_RPM_Base_Residual_Auction_Part_A_20260105.pdf ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸

2. Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, Rising Fall Electricity Rates, current page written for the fall 2025 and spring 2026 increases (undated), read October 25, 2026. https://opc.maryland.gov/Rising-Fall-Electricity-Rates ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰ ↩¹¹ ↩¹² ↩¹³

3. Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, OPC complaint challenges PJM cost rules for unfairly assigning $2 billion in data center-driven transmission costs to Marylanders, May 7, 2026; read October 25, 2026. Describes the filed complaint and requested remedy, not a ruling. https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MDOPC/bulletins/415c9b6 ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

4. PJM Learning Center, Capacity Market (RPM), current page, read October 24, 2026. https://learn.pjm.com/three-priorities/buying-and-selling-energy/capacity-markets.aspx ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

5. PJM, Glossary, Delivery Year entry, current page, read October 24, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/Glossary ↩

6. PJM Learning Center, Energy Markets, current page, read October 24, 2026. https://learn.pjm.com/three-priorities/buying-and-selling-energy/energy-markets.aspx ↩ ↩²

7. Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia, Understanding Your Electric Bill, current page, read October 25, 2026. https://dcpsc.org/Consumers-Corner/Information/Understanding-Your-Electric-Bill.aspx ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵

8. Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, Utility Rates and Basics, current page, read October 24, 2026. https://opc.maryland.gov/Consumer-Learning/Utility-Rates-and-Basics ↩ ↩² ↩³

9. PJM, 2025/2026 Base Residual Auction Report, July 30, 2024, executive summary and results table (RTO price $269.92 in 2025/26 and $28.92 in 2024/25; BGE zone $466.35; total cost to load $14.7 billion and $2.2 billion); PDF read October 24, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2025-2026/2025-2026-base-residual-auction-report.pdf ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵

10. PJM, 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report, July 22, 2025, executive summary (price cap and clearing price $329.17; value $16.1 billion); PDF read October 24, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2026-2027/2026-2027-bra-report.pdf ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

11. PJM, 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report, December 17, 2025, executive summary (price cap and clearing price $333.44; value $16.4 billion); PDF read October 24, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2027-2028/2027-2028-bra-report.pdf ↩ ↩² ↩³

12. PJM, 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report, July 14, 2026, executive summary and Table 1; PDF re-read October 25, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2028-2029/2028-2029-bra-results-report.pdf ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰

13. PJM Inside Lines, PJM Capacity Auction Procures 138,318 MW of Generation Resources as Work Continues To Address Growing Electricity Demand, July 14, 2026; read October 25, 2026. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources-as-work-continues-to-address-growing-electricity-demand/ ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

14. Independent Market Monitor for PJM (Monitoring Analytics), Analysis of the 2027/2028 RPM Base Residual Auction, Part B, July 9, 2026, executive summary and conclusions (“The high clearing prices in 2027/2028 BRA were primarily the result of existing and forecast data center load and market design flaws”; the monitor concludes the auction results were not competitive); PDF read October 25, 2026. https://www.monitoringanalytics.com/reports/Reports/2026/IMM_Analysis_of_the_20272028_RPM_Base_Residual_Auction_Part_B_20260709.pdf ↩

15. Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, Data Centers, current page (lists items through August 31, 2026), read October 25, 2026. https://opc.maryland.gov/Consumer-Learning/Data-Centers ↩ ↩² ↩³

16. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, United States Data Center Energy Usage Report: 2025 Update, published June 18, 2026, glossary, methodology and Total Energy Use section; PDF re-read October 24, 2026. https://www.energy.gov/documents/united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report-2025-update ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

17. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Maryland Electricity Profile 2024, released November 10, 2025; read October 24, 2026. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/maryland/ and detailed workbook, Tables 1 and 5 (generation by source, megawatt-hours), https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/xls/SEP%20Tables%20for%20MD.xlsx ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴

18. Same EIA workbook as ¹⁷, Table 10, Supply and disposition of electricity, 2024 column: net interstate imports 27,111,098 megawatt-hours of 62,535,914 total supply; read October 24, 2026. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/xls/SEP%20Tables%20for%20MD.xlsx ↩ ↩²

19. Maryland Public Service Commission, Standard Offer Service, current page, read October 25, 2026. https://psc.maryland.gov/regulated-utilities/electricity/standard-offer-service/ and Maryland Office of People’s Counsel, Utility (Standard Offer Service) Rates, current page, read October 25, 2026. https://opc.maryland.gov/Consumer-Learning/Electricity/Utility-Standard-Offer-Service-Rates ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶

20. Public Service Commission of the District of Columbia, Understanding Your Electric Bill, What the DCPSC controls section, current page, read October 25, 2026. https://dcpsc.org/Consumers-Corner/Information/Understanding-Your-Electric-Bill.aspx ↩

21. PJM, RPM Auction Schedule workbook (2029/2030 base auction sheet), current file, read October 25, 2026. Scheduled dates are subject to change. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/rpm-auction-schedule.xlsx ↩

22. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Order Accepting Reliability Backstop Procurement and Establishing Further Procedures, 196 FERC 61,245, Docket Nos. ER26-3380-000 and EL26-108-000, issued September 29, 2026 (copy on PJM’s eTariff site); read October 25, 2026. https://www.pjm.com/pjmfiles/directory/etariff/FercOrders/9154/20260929-er26-3380-000.pdf ↩

23. PJM Inside Lines, FERC Accepts PJM Reliability Backstop Proposal, September 30, 2026; read October 25, 2026. https://insidelines.pjm.com/ferc-accepts-pjm-reliability-backstop-proposal/ ↩

24. Monitoring Analytics, Reports 2026 index page, current page (lists the Part A and Part B reports on the 2027/2028 auction and the 2026/2027 Part B), read October 25, 2026. https://www.monitoringanalytics.com/reports/Reports/2026.shtml ↩